Housing Market Updates • Interest Rates • May 10, 2023

The Impact of Inflation on Mortgage Rates

by Heather Thompson

If you’re reading headlines about inflation or mortgage rates, you may see something about the recent decision from the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But what does it mean for you, the housing market, and your plans to buy a home? Here’s what you need to know.

Inflation and the Housing Market

While the Fed’s working hard to lower inflation, the latest data shows that, while the number has improved some, the inflation rate is still higher than the target (2%). That played a role in the Fed’s decision to raise the Federal Funds Rate last week. As Bankrate explains:

“Keeping its inflation-fighting streak alive, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the 10th time in 10 meetings . . . The hikes aimed to cool an economy that was on fire after rebounding from the coronavirus recession of 2020.”

While the Fed’s actions don’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact and contributed to the intentional cooldown in the housing market last year.

How This Impacts You

During times of high inflation, your everyday expenses go up. That means you’ve likely felt the pinch at the gas pump and in the grocery store. By raising the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed is actively trying to lower inflation. If the Fed is successful, it could also ultimately lead to lower mortgage rates and better homebuying affordability for you. That’s because when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. But, as inflation cools, experts say mortgage rates will likely fall.

Where Experts Think Mortgage Rates and Inflation Will Go from Here

Moving forward, both inflation and mortgage rates will continue to impact the housing market. And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Mortgage rates are likely to descend lower later in the year as the consumer price inflation calms down . . .”

Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explains:

“We continue to expect that mortgage rates will drift down over the course of the year as the economy slows . . .”

While there’s no way to say with certainty where mortgage rates will go from here, the experts think mortgage rates will trend down this year if inflation comes down too. To stay informed on the latest insights, connect with a trusted real estate advisor. They keep their pulse on what’s happening today and help you understand what the experts are projecting and how it could impact your homeownership plans.

Bottom Line

Don’t let headlines about the latest decision from the Fed confuse you. Where mortgage rates go from here depends on what happens with inflation. If inflation cools, mortgage rates should tick down as a result. Let’s connect so you have expert insights on housing market changes and what they mean for you.

Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

by Heather Thompson

Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

There’s been some concern lately that the housing market is headed for a crash. And given some of the affordability challenges in the housing market, along with a lot of recession talk in the media, it’s easy enough to understand why that worry has come up.

But the data clearly shows today’s market is very different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Rest assured, this isn’t a repeat of what happened back then. Here’s why.

It’s Harder To Get a Loan Now

It was much easier to get a home loan during the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis than it is today. Back then, banks had different lending standards, making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.

Things are different today as purchasers face increasingly higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show this difference. The lower the number, the harder it is to get a mortgage. The higher the number, the easier it is.

Unemployment Recovered Faster This Time

While the pandemic caused unemployment to spike over the last couple of years, the jobless rate has already recovered back to pre-pandemic levels (see the blue line in the graph below). Things were different during the Great Recession as a large number of people stayed unemployed for a much longer period of time (see the red in the graph below):

Here’s how the quick job recovery this time helps the housing market. Because so many people are employed today, there’s less risk of homeowners facing hardship and defaulting on their loans. This helps put today’s housing market on stronger footing and reduces the risk of more foreclosures coming onto the market.

There Are Far Fewer Homes for Sale Today

There were also too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 2.6-months’ supply. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008.

Equity Levels Are Near Record Highs

That low inventory of homes for sale helped keep upward pressure on home prices over the course of the pandemic. As a result, homeowners today have near-record amounts of equity (see graph below):

And, that equity puts them in a much stronger position compared to the Great Recession. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Most homeowners are well positioned to weather a shallow recession. More than a decade of home price increases has given homeowners record amounts of equity, which protects them from foreclosure should they fall behind on their mortgage payments.”

Bottom Line

The graphs above should ease any fears you may have that today’s housing market is headed for a crash. The most current data clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.

First Time Home Buyers • For Buyers • Housing Market Updates • Move-Up Buyers • Rent vs. Buy • March 20, 2023

What’s Ahead for Home Prices in 2023

by Heather Thompson

Over the past year, home prices have been a widely debated topic. Some have said we’ll see a massive drop in prices and that this could be a repeat of 2008 – which hasn’t happened. Others have forecasted a real estate market that could see slight appreciation or depreciation depending on the area of the country. And as we get closer to the spring real estate market, experts are continuing to forecast what they believe will happen with home prices this year and beyond.

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“While 2023 kicked off on a more optimistic note for the U.S. housing market, recent mortgage rate volatility highlights how much uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, the continued shortage of for-sale homes is likely to keep price declines modest, which are projected to top out at 3% peak to trough.”

Additionally, every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. Here’s what they said most recently:

So, given this information and what experts are saying about home prices, the question you might be asking is: should I buy a home this spring? Here are three reasons you should consider making a move:

Buying a home helps you escape the cycle of rising rents. Over the past several decades, the median price of rent has risen consistently. The bottom line is, rent is going up.
Homeownership is a hedge against inflation. A key advantage of homeownership is that it’s one of the best hedges against inflation. When you buy a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you secure your housing payment, so it won’t go up like it would if you rent.
Homeownership is a powerful wealth-building tool. The average net worth of a homeowner is $255,000 compared to $6,300 for a renter.

Experts are projecting slight price depreciation in the housing market this year, followed by steady appreciation. Given that, you may be wondering if you should move ahead with buying a home this spring. The decision to purchase a home is best made when you do it knowing all the facts and have an expert on your side.

First Time Home Buyers • For Buyers • Move-Up Buyers • March 9, 2023

4 Tips for Making Your Best Offer on a Home

by Heather Thompson

Are you planning to buy a home this spring? Though things are more balanced than they were at the height of the pandemic, it’s still a sellers’ market. So, when you find the home you want to buy, remember these four tips to make your best offer.

1.Lean on a Real Estate Professional

Rely on an agent who can support your goals. As Bankrate notes:

“. . . select the best real estate agent for your needs. They will be a critical part of your home buying process.”

Agents are local market experts. They know what’s worked for other buyers in your area and what sellers may be looking for in an offer. It may seem simple, but catering to what a seller needs can help your offer stand out.

2.Know Your Budget

Understanding your budget is especially important right now. As Sandy Higgins, Senior Wealth Advisor at Capstone Financial Advisors, puts it:

“Understand your current budget … what are your expenses, how’s your spending, would you need to make changes?”

The best way to understand your numbers is to work with a lender so you can get pre-approved for a loan. It helps you be more financially confident, and it shows sellers you’re serious. That can give you a competitive edge.

3.Think Through Everything Before Making an Offer

Today’s market isn’t moving at the record pace it did during the pandemic. That means you may have a bit more time to think before you need to make an offer. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“In general, you likely have more time to make an offer, although that’s certainly not a guarantee. If you’re on the fence about a home or its asking price doesn’t quite fit your budget, you might want to keep an eye on it, and if it doesn’t sell right away, you may have some room to negotiate with the seller.”

While it’s still important to stay on top of the market and be prepared to move quickly, there can be more flexibility today. Lean on the advice of your agent as you explore the options in your market.

4. Work with Your Advisor To Negotiate

During the pandemic, some buyers skipped home inspections or didn’t ask for concessions from the seller in order to submit the winning bid on a home. Fortunately, today’s market is different, and you may have more negotiating power than before. When putting together an offer, your trusted real estate advisor will help you think through what levers to pull.

Bottom Line

When you buy a home this spring, let’s connect so you have the guidance to make your best offer.

4 Tips for Making Your Best Offer on a Home | MyKCM

1.Lean on a Real Estate Professional

Rely on an agent who can support your goals. As Bankrate notes:

“. . . select the best real estate agent for your needs. They will be a critical part of your home buying process.”

2.Know Your Budget

Understanding your budget is especially important right now. As Sandy Higgins, Senior Wealth Advisor at Capstone Financial Advisors, puts it:

“Understand your current budget … what are your expenses, how’s your spending, would you need to make changes?”

3.Think Through Everything Before Making an Offer

“In general, you likely have more time to make an offer, although that’s certainly not a guarantee. If you’re on the fence about a home or its asking price doesn’t quite fit your budget, you might want to keep an eye on it, and if it doesn’t sell right away, you may have some room to negotiate with the seller.”

4. Work with Your Advisor To Negotiate

Bottom Line

When you buy a home this spring, let’s connect so you have the guidance to make your best offer.

For Sellers • Housing Market Updates • Selling Myths • March 8, 2023

2 Things Sellers Need To Know This Spring

by Heather Thompson

2 Things Sellers Need To Know This Spring | MyKCM

A lot has changed over the past year, and you might be wondering what’s in store for the spring housing market. If you’re planning to sell your house this season, here’s what real estate experts are saying you should keep in mind.

1. Houses That Are Priced Right Are Still Selling

Houses that are updated and priced at their current market value are still selling. Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

The need to price your house right is so important today because the market has changed so much over the past year. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:

“With a smaller pool of buyers today and more competition from other homes on the market, homesellers will likely need to adjust their price expectations in the market this spring.”

While this spring housing market is different than last year’s, sellers with proper expectations who lean on a real estate expert for the best advice on pricing their house well are still finding success. And that’s great news if you’re thinking about selling.

2. Buyers Are Still Out There

As mortgage rates have risen and remain volatile, some buyers have pressed pause on their plans. But there are still plenty of reasons people are buying homes today. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, spells out the mindset of today’s buyers:

“For some buyers, higher mortgage rates simply means buying a home is out of the question unless home prices fall. For others, higher mortgage rates will be a hurdle but ultimately will not keep them from getting back into the market after sitting on the sidelines for months.”

That’s why, if you’re interested in selling your house this spring, it’s helpful to work with a real estate agent who can help connect you with those buyers who are ready to purchase a home.

Bottom Line

There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.

Baby Boomers • Demographics • First Time Home Buyers • For Buyers • Millennials • Move-Up Buyers • March 7, 2023

Could a Multigenerational Home Be the Right Fit for You?

by Heather Thompson

Could a Multigenerational Home Be the Right Fit for You? | MyKCM

During the pandemic, many of us reexamined the meaning of home for ourselves and our loved ones. Today, that can be seen in the recent rise in multigenerational households. According to Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Economic Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Multi-generational buying may be a home where families live in the same home with elderly parents, children who have boomeranged back home, or other extended family members. While this is not a new concept of living, it is one which has gained recent popularity.”

And citing data from Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says:

“. . . multigenerational living has made a comeback in recent years, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis and during the pandemic.”

So, if buying a multigenerational home has crossed your mind, you aren’t alone. Depending on what stage of homeownership you’re in, there are different reasons it could be the right fit. The chart below shows responses to a recent survey from NAR about the reasons people have bought a multigenerational home:

Whether your motives are financial or focused on the people you’ll share your home with, a multigenerational home has distinct advantages. It can make homeownership more affordable, and it can help you best support your loved ones. As Lautz explains:

“Multi-generational home buying is a way for families to care for one another, support one another, and often buy a home that may have been previously out of reach. . . . The trend of multigenerational buying appears to be firmly established and one that could expand in the future.”

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to buy a house, consider the opportunities of a multigenerational home. Let’s connect so you can explore your options in our area.

First Time Home Buyers • For Buyers • Move-Up Buyers • March 6, 2023

Is It Really Better To Rent Than To Own a Home Right Now?

by Heather Thompson

Is It Really Better To Rent Than To Own a Home Right Now? | MyKCM

You may have seen reports in the news recently saying it’s better to rent right now than it is to own your home. But before you let that impact your decisions, you should understand what these claims are based on.

A lot of the time, these reports are assuming things that aren’t realistic for the average household. For example, the methodology behind one of those reports says that renting is the smarter financial option because of the opportunity to invest money elsewhere. It assumes renters take the money they’d spend on costs tied to buying a home and put it in an investment portfolio.

But here’s the thing – most people who rent aren’t making those investments. Ken Johnson, Co-Author of the BH&J National Price-to-Rent Index, explains:

“One of the difficulties with the rent and reinvest model is many people . . . simply rent and spend the difference. . . . That’s wealth destroying.”

The reason homeownership is one of the best investments you can make is the wealth it helps you build. That’s why there’s a significant difference between the net worth of the average homeowner and the average renter (see graph below):

So, before you renew your rental agreement, think about the opportunity to build wealth that homeownership provides.

Bottom Line

If you’re unsure whether to continue renting or to buy a home, let’s connect to help you make the best decision.

For Sellers • Infographics • Move-Up Buyers • March 3, 2023

Where Will You Go After You Sell Your House? [INFOGRAPHIC]

by Heather Thompson

Where Will You Go After You Sell Your House? [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

If you’re thinking of selling your house, be sure to explore all the options you have for your next home.
Both newly built homes and existing homes offer plenty of unique benefits.
If you have questions about the options in our area, let’s discuss what’s available and what’s right for you.

For Sellers • Homeownership • Move-Up Buyers • March 3, 2023

Equity Gains for Today’s Homeowners

by Heather Thompson

Equity Gains for Today’s Homeowners

Equity Gains for Today’s Homeowners | MyKCM

Today’s homeowners are sitting on significant equity, even as home price appreciation has eased recently. If you’re a homeowner, your net worth got a boost over the past few years thanks to rising home prices. Here’s what it means for you, even as the market moderates.

How Equity Has Grown in Recent Years

Because of the imbalance between how many homes were for sale and the number of homebuyers in the market over the past few years, home prices appreciated substantially.

And while price appreciation has slowed this year, that doesn’t mean you’ve lost all the equity in your home. In fact, the latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic finds the average homeowner’s equity has grown by $34,300 over the past year alone.

And if you’ve been in your home longer than that, chances are you have even more equity than you realize.

While that’s the national number, if you want to know what happened in your area, look at the map below from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). It shows on average how much home prices have risen over the past five years, which has been a major driver behind equity growth.

Why This Is So Important Right Now

While equity helps increase your overall net worth, it can also help you achieve other goals, like buying your next home. When you sell your current house, the equity you’ve built up comes back to you in the sale, and it may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next home.

So, if you’ve been holding off on selling, it may be time to find out how much equity you have and how it can help fuel your next move.

Bottom Line

Homeownership is a long game, and if you’re planning to make a move, the equity you’ve gained over time can make a big impact. To find out just how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase, let’s connect.

For Sellers • FSBOs • March 1, 2023

An Expert Makes All the Difference When You Sell Your House

by Heather Thompson

An Expert Makes All the Difference When You Sell Your House Simplifying The Market

If you’re thinking of selling your house, it’s important to work with someone who understands how the market is changing and what it means for you. Here are five reasons working with a professional can ensure you’ll get the most out of your sale. (more…)